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Every year while I’m preparing for the multiple drafts that I’m going to be participating in, one of the first things I always do is to venture over to Yahoo! and take a look at their ADP (average draft position) rankings. Basically, this allows me to see what round and what pick each player (especially ones that I plan to target) is being taken in. This, along with reviewing many mock drafts and getting to know your league settings, is a good way to start developing a draft strategy for your team.
By no means is your draft going to follow Yahoo’s ADP rankings pick-by-pick, but there should be some similarities. So, I decided to use these rankings and pick out a player at each position who is being overrated, underrated, or who is a sleeper candidate. Enjoy!
Catcher
Overrated: Ivan Rodriguez
ADP: 12th Round – Pick #142
Analysis: At age 36, Rodriguez still puts up solid numbers for a catcher. However, at this stage in his career, his name recognition far exceeds his actual fantasy value. There’s no way that he should be a top 8 catcher on draft day. If you can’t get one of the top 5 catchers (Martin, Martinez, McCann, Mauer, and Posada) it would be a big mistake to waste a 12th round pick on Pudge because there is not a large enough discrepancy in available talent to warrant that early of a pick. You are much better off waiting 4 or 5 rounds and snagging a guy like Ramon Hernandez or Mike Napoli. They will have very similar numbers to I-Rod (if not better), and that will allow you to use the picks that you saved to solidify other parts of your roster.
Underrated: Bengie Molina
ADP: 16th Round – Pick #196
Analysis: Wow, talk about flying under the radar. Molina has been a spectacular offensive backstop over the last 3 seasons, averaging .285-17-69 for the Angels, Blue Jays, and Giants. Bruce Bochy is even leaning towards batting Molina in the cleanup spot this year now that Barry Bonds is gone. Sure he only scored 38 runs last year, but his power numbers make up for his inabilities to cross the plate. Offensively, he’s about as solid as they come.
Sleeper: Carlos Ruiz
ADP: Undrafted
Analysis: Now that Ruiz is the #1 catcher in Philly, he will finally get a chance to show what he can do. He has slightly above average power, can run a little bit (6 SB’s in 2007), but more importantly, he plays for a great offense and plays half of his games in of the best hitters parks in baseball. He should be a great value pick in the very late rounds, especially in deeper leagues.
First Base
Overrated: Adrian Gonzalez
ADP: 8th Round – Pick #92
Analysis: Don’t get me wrong, Gonzalez had a great year in 2007 and is a very good player. However, he’s not worthy of an 8th round pick, especially with all of the talent at the first base position. He hits in the middle of a below-average lineup, not to mention that he plays half of his games in one of the best pitchers parks in the league. 20 of his 30 homeruns were hit away from PETCO Park. You’re better off passing on Gonzalez in the early/middle rounds of the draft and going after a guy like James Loney (ADP #161) or Carlos Delgado (ADP #171) in the later rounds of the draft.
Underrated: Carlos Pena
ADP: 6th Round – Pick #64
Analysis: I have to admit, up until a couple of weeks ago I still wasn’t a 100% believer in what Carlos Pena did last year. As a matter of fact, I even posed a question in the forums to ask if people thought he was the real deal or not, and it seemed very apparent to me that my doubts were unwarranted. But judging by his ADP, it seems that there are a lot of non-believers out there. If a guy like Travis Hafner or Derrek Lee put up a line of .282-46-121, they would be sure-fire 2nd rounders. It is understandable that many people would pass on Pena given his history, but you shouldn’t be one of them. Even though 46 homeruns in 2008 is probably not going to happen, 35-40 is a very realistic possibility. He shouldn’t get past the 5th round.
Sleeper: Adam LaRoche
ADP: 18th Round – Pick #218
Analysis: It wasn’t that LaRoche had that bad of a year last year, but more disappointing to his owners was that he took a step backwards from his breakout 2006 campaign. He is due for a rebound year in 2008, though his ADP indicates that most people aren’t thinking that way (a guy like Mark DeRosa is being picked 2 rounds earlier). I’m not saying that you should be reaching for him early, but he’s going to have a lot better year than many of the mediocre players that are being drafted before him.
Second Base
Overrated: Dustin Pedroia
ADP: 12th Round – Pick #140
Analysis: The 2007 American League Rookie of the Year has always been able to hit. He hit .308 in 3 seasons of minor league ball, and finished his first full year in the majors with a solid .317 average. Not too bad for a 24-year-old. It’s not so much that I’m not a fan of the kid, but he’s being drafted a lot earlier than he should be due to the fact that he plays for Boston and was a great success story last year. If you’re eying a 2nd baseman that fits the mold of a Pedroia, I would much rather target a guy like Freddy Sanchez who has been going 5 rounds later on average. He won’t score as many runs as Pedroia will, but he will hit for similar average and power, while driving in a lot more runs.
Underrated: Kelly Johnson
ADP: 14th Round – Pick #171
Analysis: Johnson had a nice year in 2007, finishing up with totals of .276-16-68 and 9 stolen bases. While his end of the year numbers look pretty nice, his splits show that he was somewhat inconsistent and his production greatly tailed off in August in September. I think the reason for this was that he had missed the entire 2006 season because of Tommy John surgery, and because of that he tired down the stretch. That shouldn’t be the case this season, as he should be back at full strength and hit around 20 homeruns and drive in 75-80 runs.
Sleeper: Mark Ellis
ADP: 18th Round – Pick #217
Analysis: Where’s the love for Mark Ellis? His 18th round ADP puts him as the 23rd second baseman that is being taken. Are you kidding me? He hit .276-19-76 last year to go along with 84 runs scored and 9 stolen bases. He is only 30-years-old, and barring injury, there’s no doubt in my mind that he will build upon last years successes. Once the top-tier second basemen are gone, wait until the later rounds of your draft to grab Ellis. He’s a big-time sleeper candidate.
Shortstop
Overrated: Miguel Tejada
ADP: 6th Round – Pick #77
Analysis: Prior to 2007, Tejada hadn’t missed a game in 6 years. Last year, he was hit by a pitch that fractured his wrist and forced him to miss 29 games. Thus, he only had 514 at-bats, which made his year end numbers look worse than they actually were. I’m not saying that he’s overrated because he still can’t put up good numbers, but what I am saying is that he’s going too high in most drafts. Tejada’s power numbers continue to decline, and his name surfacing in the Mitchell Report doesn’t quite boost my confidence of him rebounding this year.
Underrated: Jhonny Peralta
ADP: 14th Round – Pick #172
Analysis: Peralta bounced back nicely last year from his awful 2006 season, but due to the newfound depth of the shortstop position, his ADP has fallen down to the 14th round. There’s nothing not to like about Peralta. He’s young, he hits for power, and will drive in plenty of runs for that loaded Indians lineup. The very fact that Edgar Renteria (I could have very easily used him instead of Tejada as my overrated shortstop) is being drafted 8 rounds earlier than Peralta is just mind-boggling. If he doesn’t tire in the second half of the season this year, the Indians shortstop could hit 30 homeruns and drive in 90 runs. He’s that good.
Sleeper: Julio Lugo
ADP: 19h Round – Pick #222
Analysis: Saying that Lugo had a bad first half of the season would be an understatement, as he was hitting a pathetic .197 at the All-Star break. He ended up turning it around in the second half, and aside from his .237 average, the rest of his numbers were somewhat respectable. His value will never be any lower than it is right now, and his 19th round ADP status definitely reflects that. He should be good for over 80 runs, 30 stolen bases, and an average in the .270’s. Not too shabby if you ask me.
Third Base
Overrated: Chipper Jones
ADP: 6th Round – Pick #67
Analysis: Chipper is undoubtedly a great player when he’s healthy, but at this stage in his career, he can no longer be counted on to stay healthy for an entire season. There are too many good players available in the 6th round to waste that early of a pick on a guy that might only give you 400 at-bats this year. I know the temptation is there, because you’ll think to yourself, “this could be the year that Chipper stays healthy all year!” Please, do yourself a favor and resist that urge, at least this early in the draft. You can do so much better than Chipper in the 6th round.
Underrated: Adrian Beltre
ADP: 10th Round – Pick #122
Analysis: Beltre is always going to wear that “overrated” tag because he followed his NL MVP year in 2004 with a .255-19-87 year in 2005. While that was a long time ago, that’s what most fantasy geeks like me will remember. And since so many people think that he’s overrated, that actually makes him underrated. Do you follow me? Beltre contributes in all categories, including stolen bases. His production should increase slightly from his .276-26-99, with his stolen bases probably maxing out at 15. There’s nothing not to like about Adrian Beltre this year.
Sleeper: Edwin Encarnacion
ADP: 16th Round – Pick #194
Analysis: All signs point to Encarnacion having a breakout year in 2008. He ended the year on fire, hitting .336-9-35 during the final two months of the season, and continued his hot hitting in the Dominican Winter League. He will be placed in the middle of a potent Cincinnati Reds lineup, and plays half of his games in the Great American Ballpark. He should put up numbers very similar to Adrian Beltre this year, and is being drafted 6 rounds later. Don’t be afraid to reach for him, as he will prove to be well worth it.
Outfield
Overrated: Manny Ramirez
ADP: 3rd Round – Pick #37
Analysis: Manny’s numbers really took a hit last year, partly due to injuries, and partly due to the fact that he’s soon to be 36-years of age. He’s still a great hitter, but the days of .320-40-120 are long gone. He hasn’t had 500 at-bats since 2005, and that trend should continue this year. And while it’s nice to check your roster after your draft and see Manny Ramirez in your outfield, there is no way he should be taken in the 3rd round. I just can’t emphasize enough how many good players are available in round 3. Unless it’s the 5th or 6th round, stay away from Man-Ram.
Underrated: Jeff Francoeur
ADP: 10th Round – Pick #123
Analysis: Last year, Francoeur raised his batting average from .260 to .293. Unfortunately, it was at the expense of his power stroke, as his homerun total went from 29 to 19. The low homerun total didn’t sit well with Francoeur, as evidenced by him adding 17 pounds in the offseason with the goal in mind to hit 30 homeruns in 2008. He’s only 24, and he’s just going to keep getting better. He’s a great pick in the 10th round if you can snag him.
Sleeper: Jason Bay
ADP: 7th Round – Pick #88
Analysis: Before I comment on Bay, let me preface my analysis by saying that I have a man crush on him. Bay had a down year last year, but he’s just a year removed from a line of .286-35-109 with 11 stolen bases. At 29-years-old, he’s still firmly in his prime and has a great chance to rebound this year. If he does, he has the ability to put up #1 outfielder type numbers. I think he will revert back to his 2006 form in 2008.
Starting Pitcher
Overrated: Dan Haren
ADP: 5th Round – Pick #61
Analysis: Haren was spectacular before the All-Star break in 2007, but his splits reveal that he really hit a wall during the final 3 months of the season. This offseason, he was traded from Oakland to Arizona for a boatload of prospects. The move to the NL will definitely help Haren, but his numbers should revert closer to what they were in 2006 (14 W’s, 4.12 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 176 K’s). He should not be drafted before guys like Verlander, Zambrano, Smoltz, Oswalt, or Harang – and his ADP is indicating that he is. He’s an above average pitcher, but he did play over his head last season.
Underrated: Chien Ming-Wang
ADP: 12th Round – Pick #144
Analysis: The 12th round sounds about right as to where Wang should be drafted, but I feel that he’s underrated as a fantasy pitcher. His numbers aren’t going to get you excited. He doesn’t strike guys out, as he only had 104 K’s in 199 IP last year. He will also never have an ERA in the low 3’s. But, he will be given plenty of run support from that Yankee lineup most of the times he is on the mound, and that has resulted in 19 wins in each of the past 2 seasons. Also, the rest of his ratios are very solid, so he makes for a nice pick in the middle rounds.
Sleeper: Ian Snell
ADP: 13th Round – Pick #159
Analysis: Don’t pay attention to the low win total (9) last year – Snell can pitch. For the most part, his ratios have improved every year since he came into the league in 2004, and that trend should continue this year. He’s also a workhorse and should have no trouble exceeding 200 innings again in 2008. There will be some bumps and bruises along the way, as he is still young and learning how to pitch, but everything is in line for Snell to have a really nice year.
Closer/Relief Pitcher
Overrated: Joba Chamberlain
ADP: 11th Round – Pick #126
Analysis: There is no doubt in my mind that Joba Chamberlain is going to be a great major league pitcher one day. However, all of the hype surrounding him is clearly being eaten up by the fantasy baseball world. Well, I’m here to tell you to stay away from him, at least in the middle rounds. Not only is Joba going to begin the year in the Yankee bullpen, but reports are that he’s going to be limited to 140 regular season innings this year. If the Yankees stick to that number or not is another story, but it’s not worth risking an 11th round pick to find out. Chamberlain’s ADP puts him ahead of several full-time closers, such as Manny Corpas, Chad Cordero, Brad Lidge, Matt Capps, Jason Isringhausen, Rafael Soriano, Joakim Soria, and Eric Gagne. Wow. He shouldn’t be taken until rounds 17 or 18, which seem to be when the upper-echelon setup men start going.
Underrated: B.J. Ryan
ADP: 17th Round – Pick #200
Analysis: Ryan was one of the best closers in the game coming into 2007, until he lost the majority of that season after he underwent Tommy John Surgery. As of right now, all reports out of Blue Jays camp are that he is going to be ready to go on Opening Day. Pitchers that undergo Tommy John surgery usually aren’t back to full strength until their second year back, which will more than likely be the case with Ryan. But, his ADP shows him being drafted behind guys like Troy Percival, Brian Wilson, Aaron Heilman, and Peter Moylan. I would much rather roll the dice on the potential of B.J. Ryan instead of any of those guys listed above, and some lower-tier closers as well. There’s not much risk picking him this late in the draft, but the reward could be huge.
Sleeper: Matt Capps
ADP: 12th Round – Pick #139
Analysis: I didn’t realize this until now, but this is the fourth Pittsburgh Pirates player that I have listed as a sleeper in this article. Capps didn’t take over the closer role until June last year, but once the job was his, he was lights-out for the rest of the season. As a closer, he didn’t have a month with an ERA above 3.00 or a WHIP above 1.14. He should still be good for 30 saves this season, even on a team as bad as the Pirates. He’s not quite a household name yet, so you still might be able to steal him in your league.
Remember, anyone can draft a good team after the first 5 or 6 rounds, but it’s the middle and later rounds that make fantasy league champions. It’s just as important to identify players that you don’t want to draft as it is to identify your underrated players or sleeper candidates. Also, the ADP rankings should show you that you shouldn’t always stick to “conventional wisdom” when drafting, because playing it safe or following the crowd is not going to guarantee you success. You have to be prepared to take risks!
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