While doing the research for any article, one of the many sources I check is the Bill James Handbook 2008.  If you have never read anything by Bill James and his crew at Baseball Info Solutions, you are missing out on some of the most insightful, in-depth analysis of baseball statistics available today.  Anyway, the cover of  my copy is already tattered, with dog-eared pages and scribbles in the margins of things to research further.  This year’s Handbook features a young talent inventory, in a section written by James himself.  Among all the tasty tidbits and players listed in that section of the book, James states “there is more outstanding young talent around right now than at any other moment in baseball history.”  Then he compares the “explosion” of talent now to the group that arrived in the majors back around 1964.  A group that included; Lou Brock, Jim Fregosi,  Gaylord Perry, Jim Kaat, Jim Bouton, Luis Tiant, Boog Powell, and many more.  James believes the talent we have right now in the Majors is even greater than the talent of '64.

I think he may be right.  The players he writes about in the '08 Handbook already have a year or more of service time in the Majors.  There is more talent to come, and that is who we are going to look at here.  A dozen young pitchers who could have a major impact in the Majors, and in fantasy baseball, this season.  Some of them have already made an impact on their teams, while others may not debut until some time this season.  However, all of them are expected to be top of the rotation starters some day.  This is by no means a complete list, as there are many others who will likely come along. 

Most touts will warn you against drafting rookies for your fantasy team.  Rookies can be extremely volatile, experiencing dramatic performance swings, higher highs, and lower lows.  But I have found during my years in fantasy baseball that the fantasy manager who is fortunate enough to identify impact players that nobody else gets to first, is the guy that wins his league.  Yes, there is risk in drafting rookies.  But if you are the lucky guy who finds the real gems among these rough diamonds, you will have a leg up on your competition and stand a good chance to win your fantasy league.  So let's have a look at some young pitchers who just might help you to a title this season.

Joba Chamberlain, Yankees  (R) – Chamberlain arrived in New York last season amid incredible hype and fanfare, and immediately became the stuff of legend.  He rattled off 15 scoreless innings over his first 12 appearances, scattering 8 hits and striking out 20 batters.  Chamberlain finished the season with 34Ks in 24 innings, with a 0.38 ERA and 0.75 WHIP.  Looking towards 2008, there are many questions surrounding Chamberlain.   There seems to be some disagreement about his role, with some saying he will start, while others say he will be in the bullpen.  No matter what his role, the Yankees are going to limit his innings this season because he only pitched 112 innings altogether last season (88 - Minors, 24 Majors), and he has a significant injury history.  Be very cautious about how much you bid for, or how high you pick Chamberlain in fantasy this season.  In keeper leagues, he's a must-get.  Non-keepers should be wary of his injury issues and the limited innings.  As great as he will be, he is a very risky play for 2008, and a bit too unproven to go “all in” for.

Jair Jurrjens, Braves (R) – Jurrjens was one of the prizes the Brave received in return for sending Edgar Renteria to Detroit.  He projects as a middle of the rotation starter who could pitch in the Majors now, but is really in need of more seasoning in the Minors.  The Braves have a long history of developing young pitchers and will likely bring Jurrjens along at a slower pace than the Tigers would have.  Jurrjens is expected to compete for the fifth starter's job, but he's up against the likes of Chuck James and Mike Hampton for the role, so it is unrealistic to think he will win the job.  Odds are he spends the first part of the season in Triple A to gain experience, and gets called up later in the season to replace someone who gets injured.  When you hear he is coming up, check out his minor league numbers to see that his growth has continued and act accordingly.

Manny Parra, Brewers (L) – One of the difficult aspects of examining young players is the lack of data to make projections.  Manny Parra is no different as we have about 106 minor league innings to look at, and little else.  Parra comes with a warning tag hanging off his precious left arm, as he has a history of arm troubles.  On the other hand, when he has been able to pitch, he has been down right nasty and dominant.  For instance, last June he threw a perfect game for Triple A Nashville.  Right now it appears he won't start the season in the rotation, but Ben Sheets will, and that means there is reason to be hopeful.  Parra as shown good stuff at every level, and his skill set shows he can dominate and strike hitters out in bunches.  He has excellent control and keeps the ball in the park.  He's a future number one starter in the making who should get his chance sometime later in the season.  Keep an eye out for him and pounce when he arrives.

Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies (R) - Technically, Jimenez has already made his mark and established himself as a fantasy worthy pitcher.  He joined the Rockies rotation last season when injuries left them short on starters, and helped the team surge all the way to the World Series.  He has a dominant strikeout rate, keeps the ball down and in the park, and is definitely a ground ball type pitcher as indicated by his G/F ratios.  His only real issue is walks.  If he can exhibit even a modest improvement in his walk rate, he has a good chance to win 15 or more games.  He's going to be in the Rockies rotation to start the season and is worth adding to your fantasy team as a strikeout pitcher.  Forget about the old adage concerning Rockies pitchers because Jimenez was better at home than on the road, and the “Coors factor” is no longer what it used to be.

Adam Miller, Indians (R) – The only reason we have not seen Adam Miller in an Indians uniform yet is his health.  He has the tools to be a top pitcher at the ML level, but has not shown that he can stay healthy.  He's had problems with his fingers and his elbow that have limited his innings and slowed his progress.  He will compete for the fifth starters job, but more likely will make his debut out of the bullpen sometime later this season.  Wait and see is the best approach with Miller.

Ian Kennedy, Yankees (R) – Joba Chamberlain gets all the hype, but it is Ian Kennedy whom the Yankees refused to part with in the Johan Santana sweepstakes.  He flew through the minors, but showed excellent skills at every level.  Some say he is a better all around pitcher than Chamberlain, mainly because he has to pitch his way around hitters rather than overpowering them.  Kennedy will likely be in the Yankees starting rotation and he is worth taking a chance on with the powerful Yankee offense scoring runs for him. 

Max Scherzer, Diamondbacks (R) – The Diamondbacks are supposedly giving Scherzer the fast track to the majors because of his dominant velocity and willingness to challenge hitters inside.  There are questions about the first-round pick's stamina that lead some to think he is better suited to relief work, and perhaps even a closers role.  He posted 106 Ks in just 90 2/3 innings in the minors last year and allowed only 3 home runs, so the command skills are there. Chances are he will spend the year in the minors, and if he does make it to the show it will likely be for use out of the pen until he shows the stamina to pitch deeper into games.

Phillip Humber, Mets (R) - Humber's story is one of perseverance in the face of injury.  He underwent Tommy John surgery during the 2005 season and rehabbed his way back into consideration by the Mets for a trip to the show.  At Triple A New Orleans last season he showed that he still has the impressive command skills and the potential to be an innings eating pitcher.  Humber will probably get a shot again at some point this season as the youth movement in NY marches on.  For fantasy purposes he is someone to take a wait and see approach with.  He needs to show success at the ML level before you jump on his bandwagon.
 
Luke Hochevar, Royals (R) – Hochevar was once touted as the Royals top pitching prospect, but as he has risen through the minors a few disturbing trends have emerged.  With each step up in level, Hochevar has struggled to make adjustments.  In particular, Hochevar appears to have a terminal case of gopheritis.  In 154 innings at the Triple A level he served up a staggering 24 home runs.  The Royals are talking about him making his debut in 2008, but in reality he probably needs another year of seasoning in the minors.  He's someone to avoid until he turns the corner and reaches the potential he once showed.

Brandon Morrow, Mariners (R) – The Mariners plan to give Morrow a shot at the starting rotation after spending a season in the bullpen.  His year of relief work showed that he can dominate hitters and strike them out in bunches.  Unfortunately, he also walks them in bunches and struggles with his control.  Morrow has also shown himself to be more of a fly ball pitcher which could result in an increased HR rate if he actually throws the ball over the plate more.  There is a lot of potential here, but he is likely to experience growing pains as a starter that you won't want any part of.  Watch, but wait on Morrow.

Clay Buchholz, Red Sox (R) – After throwing a no-hitter in his second start in the Majors, Buchholz suddenly appeared on everybody's radar as the next rookie phenom.  Instead of riding his arm to the post season, the Red Sox shut him down after he showed signs that his increased innings were wearing him down.  Buchholz has dominant stuff, most notably a wicked 12-6 curve that buckles the knees of hitters.  He will start '08 in the minors, but it is just a matter of time before the Sox bring him up to stay.  He's someone to target as soon as you hear he is being promoted as he is sure to be an ace when he gets his chance.

Gio Gonzales, Athletics (L) – Gonzales dominated in Double A ball last season, striking out 180 batters in 150 innings.  He also showed decent control and kept the long ball to a minimum.  In any other organization he probably spends another year in the minors, but for the A's he has a decent shot to make the rotation out of Spring Training.  He has plenty of upside for a young pitcher and is worth a flier if you are in need of strikeouts.  Watch how he pitches this spring.  If he makes the starting rotation try to get him on the cheap, as he is likely to be off most people's radar.